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Higher rates and a stronger USD have led to multiple compression, a process that remains unfinished, in our view. Whether the final chapter of the mid-cycle transition ends with a 10% or 20% correction in the S&P 500 will be determined by how much earnings growth decelerates or has to outright decline (i.e., the Ice). We are gaining confidence in a sharper deceleration but the timing is more uncertain.
We see higher labor and raw material costs, supply chain issues, and demand pull forward being key risks. Importantly, our work shows that Y/Y change in earnings revisions breadth tends to lead forward earnings growth by 26 weeks. Further, the Y/Y change in earnings revisions breadth has already started to decelerate, pointing to notable downside to earnings growth as we look ahead 6 months.
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