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Higher rates and a stronger USD have led to multiple compression, a process that remains unfinished, in our view. Whether the final chapter of the mid-cycle transition ends with a 10% or 20% correction in the S&P 500 will be determined by how much earnings growth decelerates or has to outright decline (i.e., the Ice). We are gaining confidence in a sharper deceleration but the timing is more uncertain.

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We see higher labor and raw material costs, supply chain issues, and demand pull forward being key risks. Importantly, our work shows that Y/Y change in earnings revisions breadth tends to lead forward earnings growth by 26 weeks. Further, the Y/Y change in earnings revisions breadth has already started to decelerate, pointing to notable downside to earnings growth as we look ahead 6 months.

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Трудно быть медведем
Пятнадцатипроцентная коррекция
Охлаждение EPS
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